Category Archives: Football Betting

NCAA Football Betting Picks: USC Preview

Shortly, college football odds will be posted and gamblers will flock to OffshoreInsiders.com for the top sports betting picks. Here is an early peak at the USC Trojans.

The star-studded USC offense, led by senior quarterback Matt Barkley, will be the focus of considerable media attention this football season, but the much-maligned defense earned some headlines of its own last week, as cornerback Nickell Robey and safety T.J. McDonald were recognized on preseason watch lists for the Nagurski, Thorpe, and Bednarik awards.

Senior safety T.J. McDonald (pictured) and junior cornerback Nickell Robey represent the USC Trojans on three preseason awards watch lists.

A weak spot for USC in Lane Kiffin’s first two seasons as head coach, the defense should continue to improve in 2012, with Robey and McDonald providing stability and leadership in the secondary.

McDonald, a senior captain, has 23 starts with the Trojans; Robey, a junior, has 24. Both players have six career interceptions and were first-team All-Pac-12 selections in 2011.

Though they share interception totals, preseason accolades, and a penchant for mentoring the newest members of the USC defense, the similarities end there.

McDonald is a California native who grew up dreaming of playing for USC, where his dad, Tim, was a star before launching a successful NFL career. (T.J. and Tim are the first father-son duo from USC to be first-team All-Americans and team captains.)

Robey came to L.A. from Florida, and initially committed to play for Tennessee before signing with the Trojans (and former Vols coach Kiffin).

McDonald, an imposing 6’3?, 205 lbs., is a physcial, hard-hitting back who racked up personal foul penalties last season, even serving a half-game suspension for a late-hit in the USC-Stanford game.

Robey, just 5’8? and 165 lbs., is often at a disadvantage when covering bigger receivers, but he makes up for it with his speed; he even joined the USC track team this offseason.

McDonald and Robey are focused playing hard, shoring up the defense after a few shaky seasons, and helping to lead the Trojans back to a bowl game after two years of sanctions, in what might be the final season at USC for them both. (McDonald is in his last year; Robey will decide after the season whether to return for his senior season or enter the draft.)

The better the Trojans’ defense is, though, the greater their chances at individual honors. The only Trojan to receive the Jim Thorpe Award for best defensive back was Mark Carrier in 1986.

No one from USC has taken home the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which since 1993 has been awarded to the nation’s best defensive player. McDonald or Robey, or even linebacker Dion Bailey, who was also named to the Nagurski and Bednarik watch lists, could be the first.

Be sure to check out other great articles at isportsweb.

Super Bowl XLVII Favorites, Contenders, Odds To Win

Though preseason NFL picks 2012 have not yet been listed, Super Bowl 47 odds 2013 are posted. The favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII are the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots. The defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants are relative long shots at +1250.

ARIZONA CARDINALS +4000
ATLANTA FALCONS +2000
BALTIMORE RAVENS +1500
BUFFALO BILLS +6000
CAROLINA PANTHERS +5000
CHICAGO BEARS +2450
CINCINNATI BENGALS +4000
CLEVELAND BROWNS +10000
DALLAS COWBOYS +2250
DENVER BRONCOS +1000
DETROIT LIONS +1500
GREEN BAY PACKERS +500
HOUSTON TEXANS +900
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +10000
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +10000
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +5500
MIAMI DOLPHINS +3500
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7500
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +600
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +1250
NEW YORK GIANTS +1250
NEW YORK JETS +2500
OAKLAND RAIDERS +7000
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +1000
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +1500
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +2000
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +1000
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +5000
ST. LOUIS RAMS +7500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +7500
TENNESSEE TITANS +5000
WASHINGTON REDSKINS +5000

There is little to no debate that the top sports handicapper off all-time in the NFL is Joe Duffy’s GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com and the “NFL Specialists” since the scorephone days of last century.

Sports Handicapping: NY Giants, Like Sports Gamblers Value Backup QBs

Sports gambling experts know the importance of backup quarterbacks. Just as World Champion handicapper Joe Duffy explains in that article, the fellow World Champions—in “real life” football, the NY Giants clearly also put the same priority as the best preseason NFL handicappers.

As much as backup quarterback is an overlooked position in New York (in blue anyway), it is an ever-important role.

Rewind to the New York Giants’ 1990 regular season when MVP quarterback Phil Simms went down in Week 15 with a broken right foot. Then-reserve QB, Jeff Hostetler stepped up and owned the part – right through Super Bowl XXV.

Giants fans don’t ponder this as much with Eli Manning under center. Easy E has started in 119 consecutive games – all while taking a pounding during a number of those games. The epitome of his toughness, most will agree, was publicized throughout January’s NFC Championship Game.

Many tend to forget back in 2007, during the Week one game versus the Cowboys when LB Anthony Spencer hit Manning on a 2-point conversion attempt, injuring the quarterback’s left (non-throwing) shoulder. Initially, it was reported that #10 would miss four to eight weeks with a sprained/bruised AC joint; he hasn’t missed a single regular season game since. Every serious football fan knows how the 2007 season ended for Manning and the New York Giants…

Considering the last number of years and all 32 teams’ QB/injury situation, one has to realize how significant that reserve role justly is. The case of Hostetler is rarer than it is reality.

Division rival QBs Tony Romo and Michael Vick both succumbed to injury at some point in the last two years. Collectively, their teams went 9-10 with them in medical bay receiving treatment.

Ask fans from the Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, (even the Oakland Raiders early on in 2012 will chime in) if a capable backup is/was a need for Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Matt Cassel, (and then, Jason Campbell). Ernie Accorsi could have told you so too.

“I always said the most important guy on your team is the quarterback and the second most important is the backup,” remembers Ernie Accorsi, retired GM of the New York Giants (and Cleveland Browns). “I wanted (Kurt) Warner as soon as we got (Eli) Manning. In Cleveland in 1988, we had (Bernie) Kosar, (Gary) Danielson and Mike Pagel. Kosar and Danielson got hurt so I picked up (Don) Strock. We had six quarterback injuries. All four got hurt – Kosar twice – and we made the playoffs. You can’t do that today. You can’t afford that.”

There are, of course, stories that aren’t played out so horribly. Matt Schaub went down and then his backup (Matt Leinart) went down – putting rookie T.J. Yates in as the only quarterback to come in under center and have the team continue to play pretty much the same (more due to a fabulous running game that was hitting on all cylinders). Again, as with Hostetler (and Steve Young), it’s rare.

Bear in mind, those teams with no true starter at quarterback or ones with ongoing quarterback controversy aren’t being introduced as part of this equation.

Since no controversy is remotely near this gun-slinger position on the New York Giants, it’s safe to say Eli Manning’s health is a hotter commodity than QB David Carr and QB Ryan Perrilloux. This remains fact since the Giants tend to carry only two quarterbacks on their 53-man roster.

Since Carr has the actual regular season game experience of 11 years, it’s pretty much a lock that the spot is his. However, Carr is 32-years-old and is now signing one-year contracts; this won’t go on forever and at some point, he’ll retire. The Giants will need to secure a reliable backup before that time hits. Question is will they groom him from within or try to grab someone in free agency as they’ve been doing?

Also…

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Scott Fujita Has NFL Handicappers Making Note of Saints Bounty

Whether one is a fan of Pinterest sports picks feed or listens to the recommended sports betting podcasts all football handicappers have interest on the Saints bountygate.

The New Orleans Saints’ alleged “bounty” program, which is said to have rewarded certain players who injured opponents with “bounties on their heads”, has been a major headline-generator for the last few days. Three of the players allegedly involved in the “VIP deals”, Scott Fujita, Anthony Hargrove and Will Smith appeared at the bounty appeal hearing in front of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell on Monday. Although Hargrove’s and Smiths legal counsels didn’t make a comment on the hearing, and Jonathan Vilma didn’t even bother to personally attend, it was clear from the comments made by Scott Fujita that nothing has really been settled or solved at the hearing which lasted a little over an hour and which was eventually adjourned on account of some issues brought up by Peter Ginsberg, Vilma’s lawyer.

After the Monday hearing, Fujita sought to reassure members of the media that there wasn’t any evidence that suggested he had indeed been involved in a pay-to-injure setup, and that there would likely never be such evidence produced, simply because he had never ever been involved with anything this vile in nature.

Besides looking to clear his name, Fujita lashed out at the NFL, accusing the organization of tarnishing his reputation and thus forcing him into a position where he’s finding it increasingly difficult to provide for his family.

Even though Fujita may be rightfully outraged at the fact that the NFL never really fully justified the suspension of the above named four players, his statements begs the question: after 10 years of positive conduct on his part, and after 10 years of having earned millions upon millions of dollars, how could he possibly be in a position to not be able to provide for his family, by any measure?

Whether or not Fujita and the other three players are found guilty remains to be seen, his rather vehement attack on the NFL though, which he called careless and irresponsible, doesn’t do a whole lot to prove his innocence at this stage.

Sports Betting Tweets: Roddy White Speaks Up

OffshoreInsiders.com, the top NFL picks website has handicappers researching the upcoming season. Keeping an eye or some offseason headlines, Roddy White has an interesting Tweet say the official pro gamblers sports betting Twitter feed.

Roddy White of the Atlanta Falcons has never been shy to speak his mind, and he is quite probably one of the most prolific Twitter users within the team. Most of the fans are therefore more than familiar with where he stands on a variety of issues. They know he’s never liked the new labor deal, and that he had vocally opposed it even before it was accepted last summer. He has also spoken up against ex-NFL players suing the league, claiming that they were out to destroy the game, starting a Twitter fight on that issue as well. Now, he decided to pick another fight with the NFL Players’ Association, on the deal the organization had struck with the league.

The igniting factor of White’s latest twitter tirade was Andrew Brandt’s Monday afternoon tweet, which served as a starting point for what would turn out to be a series of tweets patting Roger Goodell on the back, propping him up for having struck a hell of a deal and bashing the NFLPA for having failed its members.

Of course, as it’s usually the case, White’s Twitter rant came complete with a few factual inaccuracies and rather peculiar assumptions. For instance, he said the NFLPA needed to hire the head of the baseball players’ union, as there were never any labor-related issues there, clearly forgetting the reasons why baseball had dipped so far below football on the popularity scale.

Whether the fans are in any way impressed by White’s tweets is difficult to tell. One thing is certain: those responsible for the NFL’s massive revenues care little about how the league and its players divide the spoils. All they want to see is quality action on the field, and as far as White is concerned, some fans noted that he’d be much better off showing up on the field rather than on Twitter.

Week 1 NFL Lines 2012 Betting Spread

It’s not even time for NFL preseason tips but week 1 NFL odds 2012 are out. The Dallas Cowboys open at the New York Giants on Wednesday, Sept. 5. Sports handicappers have the Super Bowl Champs laying just (-3).

Why is the NFL season opening on a Wednesday? It is so it does not conflict the Barack Oba’s acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention. Oh Obama is favorite to win over Mitt Romney according to the 2012 US Presidential odds.

Dallas Cowboys +3 +115
New York Giants -3 -125
Indianapolis Colts +9 +109
Chicago Bears -9 -118
Philadelphia Eagles -7 -108
Cleveland Browns +7 +100
Buffalo Bills +6 -121
New York Jets -6 +112
Washington Redskins +9.5 -104
New Orleans Saints -9.5 -104
New England Patriots -7 +104
Tennessee Titans +7 -113
Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 -104
Minnesota Vikings -4.5 -104
Miami Dolphins +7 -110
Houston Texans -7 +102
St. Louis Rams +9 -102
Detroit Lions -9 -106
Atlanta Falcons -1 -108
Kansas City Chiefs +1 +100
San Francisco 49ers +7 -110
Green Bay Packers -7 +102
Carolina Panthers -3 +100
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -108
Seattle Seahawks +1 +110
Arizona Cardinals -1 -119
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 -121
Denver Broncos -3 +112
Cincinnati Bengals +7 -118
Baltimore Ravens -7 +109
San Diego Chargers +1 +100
Oakland Raiders -1 -108

Jonathan Vilma Out For Season In Saints Bounty Disgrace

The NFL has issued the long awaited player penalties for Bounty Gate.

Saints MLB Jonathan Vilma as expected will get hit with a year-long suspension. The Saints covered their bases by signing former Falcons MLB Curtis Lofton earlier this year.

The league concluded that as defensive captain, Vilma aided DC Gregg Williams in the implementation of the program. His suspension is effective immediately.

Other players include:

Packers DE Anthony Hargrove has been suspended for eight games.

Saints DE Will Smith has been suspended for four games.

Browns LB Scott Fujita has been suspended for three games.

All players but Vilma are allowed to participate in OTAs and pre-season games.

These are the first and final penalties in regards to the players and Bounty Gate.

The NFL’s Roger Goodell was very firm in a statement released today.

“In assessing player discipline,” Goodell said, “I focused on players who were in leadership positions at the Saints; contributed a particularly large sum of money toward the program; specifically contributed to a bounty on an opposing player; demonstrated a clear intent to participate in a program that potentially injured opposing players; sought rewards for doing so; and/or obstructed the 2010 investigation.”

“No bounty program can exist without active player participation,” Goodell added. “The evidence clearly showed that the players being held accountable today willingly and enthusiastically embraced the bounty program. Players put the vast majority of the money into this program and they share responsibility for playing by the rules and protecting each other within those rules.”

Be sure to check out other great articles at Players View.

Big Bank Roller Releases one of the Most Important Betting Videos in History

OffshoreInsiders.com has posted what they say is one of the most important instructional videos ever for sports bettors. From beginner up to anyone who wants to be a professional gambler, this video aims to be the “Snopes” for the sports investor. It’s on their YouTube channel

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, has written many articles and broadcast sundry YouTube videos and numerous podcasts in his career. The venerable handicapper’s tenure stretches back to the scorephone days of the 1980s.

However, on his YouTube sports betting channel the big bank roller has posted what his says is among his most revealing projects yet. “Sports Betting’s Biggest Myths” exposes common fallacies, blunders and urban legends that most gamblers parrot time and time again.

For example, one of the most fundamental is how bettors overvalue the straight up won-loss records of teams when constructing spread predictions.  Duffy explains why and gives that data that pro gamblers utilize instead.

He also reveals a recurrent misstep the middling bettor perpetuates in both the college football bowls and NCAA Tournament, not to mention most major conference tournaments.

Duffy asserts that one of the biggest difference between the pro bettor and the square is how they perceive inconsistent teams. “Teams that are tough to get a handle on are an oddsmaker’s nightmare and a boon to the sharp player. ‘Predictably unpredictable’ teams are what squares and oddsmakers equally avoid with extreme trepidation, while the wise guys welcome with open arms and wallet.”

“Sports Betting’s Biggest Myths” is the 97th video uploaded to the sports handicapping channel

Patriots vs. Ravens Prediction Preview

Sizing up the AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs Ravens

Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots looks to pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos during their AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Gillette Stadium on January 14, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
(January 13, 2012 – Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)

(PhatzRadio / USA Today) — Analyzing the offenses, defenses and special teams that will decide the AFC title game between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens.

When the Patriots have the ball …

The New England Patriots are well-equipped to use empty sets early and often to counteract the Baltimore Ravens’ supercharged pass rush.

Quarterback Tom Brady has skilled tight ends who can align at wide receiver, flex into the slot or motion into the backfield to slow the 3-4 scheme. Brady had six touchdown passes last weekend and wasn’t sacked.

The Ravens brought pressure through the inside gaps in beating the Patriots in the 2009 playoffs and have been successful in tripping up Brady’s timing with his receivers.

Brady’s 55.9 completion percentage against the Ravens in five career games is his lowest against any NFL team. He can take advantage of strong safety Bernard Pollard’s aggressiveness vs. tight end Rob Gronkowski and slide wideout Wes Welker, who had 122 catches in the regular season, around the formation to find the best matchup.

Free safety Ed Reed, typically an equalizer in coverage because of his range, closing speed and sure hands, might be limited by a sore ankle. Brady has had at least one 40-yard completion in 10 of the last 13 games, including last weekend, and will pepper throws to the sideline to gauge Reed’s health.

If Reed is sound, the Ravens have a chance to rattle Brady as they did two years ago, when he was intercepted three times, sacked three times and had a passer rating of 49.1 and a longest completion of 24 yards. However, they failed to record a sack and did not produce much pressure with the pass rush in last weekend’s divisional-round victory against the Houston Texans, who had a rookie quarterback as their starter.

The Patriots have a sum-of-parts running game. In their divisional-round win against the Denver Broncos, tight end Aaron Hernandez had a team-high 61 yards on five carries, including a 43-yard run.

Baltimore gave up 92.6 rushing yards a game in 2011, holding eight of its opponents to fewer than 95 rushing yards.

When the Ravens have the ball …

When the Baltimore Ravens beat the New England Patriots 33-14 in the 2009 postseason, it was a sizzling Ray Rice performance that carried the day.

Rice had 22 carries for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including an early, tone-setting 83-yard score, and the Ravens attempted 10 passes. Baltimore must break its puzzling habit of going away from Rice in road games this season; he is averaging 14.5 carries, and he has had 10 or fewer four times.

That can’t happen on this stage. Rice accounted for 38% of the team’s offensive output in 2011, and he’s easily the Ravens’ premier playmaker.

The Patriots aren’t a threat to sack quarterback Joe Flacco five times as the Houston Texans did last weekend. Their front seven is not as active or athletic, and the holes throughout their secondary have been exposed by far lesser quarterbacks than Flacco in recent weeks.

By avoiding mistakes, Flacco was 7-0 during the regular season against teams that would reach the playoffs, throwing two interceptions in those games. He was nervy behind a flustered offensive line last weekend and has thrown for six touchdowns with seven interceptions in eight career playoff games. Flacco has the height and arm strength to get the ball out even in a muddled pocket.

Wide receiver Anquan Boldin, the team’s best route runner, works the middle of the field fearlessly. The Patriots are likely to let Flacco have the 7- to 10-yard intermediate throws to instead challenge speed threats Torrey Smith and Lee Evans.

New England allowed 300-yard passing games 10 times and was 31st in passing defense in the regular season. But the numbers are slightly overstated, as the Patriots patiently wait for miscues and clamp down in the red zone.

They’ll attack Flacco’s looseness with the ball — he had 11 fumbles during the season and one last weekend — and attempt to change the game with takeaways.

Special teams

The New England Patriots punted five or more times in two of their 17 games. By contrast, the Baltimore Ravens punted nine times last week, the ninth time this season they had five or more. New England’s Zoltan Mesko had a 46.5-yard average in the regular season to match Sam Koch of the Ravens.

Baltimore’s return game —Tom Zbikowski on kickoffs, Lardarius Webb on punts — isn’t a major threat since losing David Reed (29.7 yards per kickoff return) to a knee injury Dec. 24. The Patriots aren’t a major threat to break a long return either. Julian Edelman had a 72-yard runback for a score but otherwise averaged 8.3 yards on 27 punt returns.

Baltimore was 31st in kickoff return average at 29.2 yards, but the Ravens came up with a fumble recovery on a punt return last weekend.

Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff made 76% of his field goal attempts and was hampered late in the season by a calf injury. Stephen Gostkowski was 10-for-13 on field goal attempts of 40-plus yards and 28-for-33 overall for New England.

Compiled by Jeff Reynolds of The Sports Xchange

Sizing up the AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs Ravens is a post from: PhatzRadio.com

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