Sizing up the AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs Ravens
Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots looks to pass in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos during their AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Gillette Stadium on January 14, 2012 in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
(January 13, 2012 – Photo by Elsa/Getty Images North America)
(PhatzRadio / USA Today) — Analyzing the offenses, defenses and special teams that will decide the AFC title game between the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens.
When the Patriots have the ball …
The New England Patriots are well-equipped to use empty sets early and often to counteract the Baltimore Ravens’ supercharged pass rush.
Quarterback Tom Brady has skilled tight ends who can align at wide receiver, flex into the slot or motion into the backfield to slow the 3-4 scheme. Brady had six touchdown passes last weekend and wasn’t sacked.
The Ravens brought pressure through the inside gaps in beating the Patriots in the 2009 playoffs and have been successful in tripping up Brady’s timing with his receivers.
Brady’s 55.9 completion percentage against the Ravens in five career games is his lowest against any NFL team. He can take advantage of strong safety Bernard Pollard’s aggressiveness vs. tight end Rob Gronkowski and slide wideout Wes Welker, who had 122 catches in the regular season, around the formation to find the best matchup.
Free safety Ed Reed, typically an equalizer in coverage because of his range, closing speed and sure hands, might be limited by a sore ankle. Brady has had at least one 40-yard completion in 10 of the last 13 games, including last weekend, and will pepper throws to the sideline to gauge Reed’s health.
If Reed is sound, the Ravens have a chance to rattle Brady as they did two years ago, when he was intercepted three times, sacked three times and had a passer rating of 49.1 and a longest completion of 24 yards. However, they failed to record a sack and did not produce much pressure with the pass rush in last weekend’s divisional-round victory against the Houston Texans, who had a rookie quarterback as their starter.
The Patriots have a sum-of-parts running game. In their divisional-round win against the Denver Broncos, tight end Aaron Hernandez had a team-high 61 yards on five carries, including a 43-yard run.
Baltimore gave up 92.6 rushing yards a game in 2011, holding eight of its opponents to fewer than 95 rushing yards.
When the Ravens have the ball …
When the Baltimore Ravens beat the New England Patriots 33-14 in the 2009 postseason, it was a sizzling Ray Rice performance that carried the day.
Rice had 22 carries for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including an early, tone-setting 83-yard score, and the Ravens attempted 10 passes. Baltimore must break its puzzling habit of going away from Rice in road games this season; he is averaging 14.5 carries, and he has had 10 or fewer four times.
That can’t happen on this stage. Rice accounted for 38% of the team’s offensive output in 2011, and he’s easily the Ravens’ premier playmaker.
The Patriots aren’t a threat to sack quarterback Joe Flacco five times as the Houston Texans did last weekend. Their front seven is not as active or athletic, and the holes throughout their secondary have been exposed by far lesser quarterbacks than Flacco in recent weeks.
By avoiding mistakes, Flacco was 7-0 during the regular season against teams that would reach the playoffs, throwing two interceptions in those games. He was nervy behind a flustered offensive line last weekend and has thrown for six touchdowns with seven interceptions in eight career playoff games. Flacco has the height and arm strength to get the ball out even in a muddled pocket.
Wide receiver Anquan Boldin, the team’s best route runner, works the middle of the field fearlessly. The Patriots are likely to let Flacco have the 7- to 10-yard intermediate throws to instead challenge speed threats Torrey Smith and Lee Evans.
New England allowed 300-yard passing games 10 times and was 31st in passing defense in the regular season. But the numbers are slightly overstated, as the Patriots patiently wait for miscues and clamp down in the red zone.
They’ll attack Flacco’s looseness with the ball — he had 11 fumbles during the season and one last weekend — and attempt to change the game with takeaways.
Special teams
The New England Patriots punted five or more times in two of their 17 games. By contrast, the Baltimore Ravens punted nine times last week, the ninth time this season they had five or more. New England’s Zoltan Mesko had a 46.5-yard average in the regular season to match Sam Koch of the Ravens.
Baltimore’s return game —Tom Zbikowski on kickoffs, Lardarius Webb on punts — isn’t a major threat since losing David Reed (29.7 yards per kickoff return) to a knee injury Dec. 24. The Patriots aren’t a major threat to break a long return either. Julian Edelman had a 72-yard runback for a score but otherwise averaged 8.3 yards on 27 punt returns.
Baltimore was 31st in kickoff return average at 29.2 yards, but the Ravens came up with a fumble recovery on a punt return last weekend.
Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff made 76% of his field goal attempts and was hampered late in the season by a calf injury. Stephen Gostkowski was 10-for-13 on field goal attempts of 40-plus yards and 28-for-33 overall for New England.
Compiled by Jeff Reynolds of The Sports Xchange
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