Preseason betting is a unique animal in the world of sports wagering. It requires a different set of strategies than regular-season games due to the unpredictable nature of team rosters, playing time, and coaching decisions. Here’s how to navigate the preseason betting landscape effectively:

1. Avoid Betting on Teams with Washed-Up Starters

One of the golden rules of preseason betting is to steer clear of teams relying on aging or ineffective starters. These players often have nothing to prove and are more concerned with avoiding injury than competing at a high level. On the other hand, players battling for a spot on the roster approach preseason games with the intensity of a regular-season game. This difference in motivation can create opportunities for savvy bettors.

The phenomenon known as the “John Kitna/Joey Harrington Syndrome” illustrates this point. Teams that trot out washed-up veterans often lack the urgency and intensity seen in teams with younger, hungrier players fighting for their careers. These veterans might go through the motions, making them poor bets during the preseason.

2. Fading Line Moves: More Effective in Preseason

Fading line moves—betting against significant shifts in the betting line—can be particularly profitable in the preseason. Bettors often overreact to news about playing time or starting lineups, leading to exaggerated line movements. For instance, a minor announcement that a starting quarterback will play one more series than expected can cause a significant shift in the line. Savvy bettors know that this is an opportunity to fade the move, as the impact on the actual game is often negligible.

Additionally, the preseason is the best time for middling—a strategy where bettors place bets on both sides of a moving line, hoping to win both bets. The volatility and overreactions in the preseason market create an ideal environment for this technique.

3. Coaches Implementing New Schemes: Less Vanilla Playcalling

When coaches are introducing new offensive or defensive schemes, they tend to be less conservative in their playcalling during the preseason. Unlike veteran teams running familiar systems, teams with new coordinators or head coaches are more likely to experiment and showcase their new strategies.

It’s important to note that a new offensive or defensive coordinator can be just as significant as a new head coach. These changes often lead to less vanilla (or basic) playcalling, as coaches want to see how their new systems perform under game conditions. Bettors who can identify teams in this situation have a significant edge.

4. Reading News and Notes: The Devil Is in the Details

In the preseason, information is king. Reading team news, coaching interviews, and practice reports can provide valuable insights into how teams will approach their games. For example, knowing which players are in tight battles for starting positions or understanding a coach’s plan for distributing playing time can be the difference between a winning and losing bet.

However, it’s crucial not to overreact to every piece of information. The preseason is notorious for misinformation and smokescreens, so it’s essential to interpret the news critically and consider the source.

Conclusion

Preseason betting offers unique opportunities for bettors who understand the nuances of this part of the NFL calendar. By avoiding bets on teams with washed-up starters, effectively fading line moves, capitalizing on teams implementing new schemes, and diligently reading news and notes, you can gain a significant edge in the market. The key is to approach preseason betting with a disciplined strategy, focusing on the factors that matter most in these unpredictable games.

There is not better preseason NFL handicapper than Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com Joe Duffy is hailed as the ultimate football betting guru, both in college and pro leagues, no questions asked!