Fantasy Baseball and Vegas Odds Handicapping: Who to Pick Up

Fantasy Baseball free agent pools can be an incredible mystery.  In standard 5×5 mixed leagues the free agent pool is made up of players deemed not valuable enough to be on a roster.  We’re all familiar with the ‘island of mis-fit toys’ theory that has swept through baseball over the last decade, this theory isn’t exactly the same in fantasy baseball, but there are valuable free agents out there.  We’re going to take a look at who’s stock the fantasy baseball market says is rising.  We’ll break down if these players are valuable or not.  For relevancy’s sake, we’ll analyze the players who have been added the most frequently of late.

Mark Ellis (Photo credit: Keith Allison)

Mark Ellis, 2B, LAD:  Aging second baseman are normally not great fantasy baseball additions.  Ellis is 36 years old, easily falling into the ‘aging’ category.  Through 20 games, he’s playing well over his ability.  Ellis has never proved to be a valuable fantasy commodity.  He doesn’t hit for a high average, doesn’t score or drive in a lot of runs, and doesn’t steal bases.  If you struck while the iron was hot and picked up Ellis towards the beginning of the year, kudos to you.  Now would be a good time to dump him because he’s going to steadily move towards reality.  Which for Ellis is .266/.331/.395 and 6 HR, it’s time to get off the Mark Ellis wagon.

Russell Martin, C, PIT:  Not many two-time All-Star catchers that hit 21 HR are free agents.  Although Russell Martin falls into that category.  Martin is coming off a year where his BA was .211, undoubtedly driving down his draft stock.  The Canadian however, has proven to be a much better hitter through his career with a career BA of .260.  Home runs are what make Martin a valuable pickup.  Catcher is the toughest position to get offensive output out of, so unless you’ve got one of the premier catchers in the league, scoop up Martin.

Omar Infante, 2B, DET:  If you read the breakdown of Mark Ellis above, there won’t be much different when it comes to Infante.  He’s a little younger than Ellis which is good for his career but not for a fantasy owner.  Infante is a light hitter who doesn’t provide much more than a decent average.  Hitting .305 through 86 PA is a great accomplishment for Infante but he won’t keep it up.  Stay away from Infante unless you’re desperate for a couple hits at the second base position.

Travis Hafner, DH, NYY:  Designated Hitters are tough fantasy plays.  Obviously, they lock up your roster moving ability by only being able to play the utility position.  Nonetheless, if you’ve been playing Hafner for the month of April you’ve got to be loving life.  Hafner has cranked 6 home runs and driven in 14 runs.  Hafner has had some big years in the best but those days are far behind him.  Playing in Yankee Stadium will help improve his home run numbers but he’s still not playing every single day and most will agree that his numbers are going to subside.  Leave him for someone else to grab.

Marwin Gonzalez, SS, HOU:  Gonzalez’s biggest accomplishment of this year will probably be breaking up Yu Darvish’s no hitter in early April.  Even though his single between Darvish’s legs have gotten him the most ink, Gonzalez has been a solid offensive producer this year.  He’s hitting .300, something he’s come close to doing in the minor leagues a couple times, so the potential is there.  Gonzalez won’t provide value to power metrics but he is a serviceable shortstop especially if you need help with BA.  He’s a good pickup if you’ve got a shortstop with a low BA and no potential.

 

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